FEATURE: Korean gunboat poker

The ABC's Mark Willacy takes a look at the dangerous game being played out between Pyongyang and Washington.

Mark Willacy, North Asia correspondent

Last Updated: Wed, 28 Jul 2010 12:43:00 +1000

It's the most lethal killing machine ever built. With its radar-deflecting stealth shape, top speed of Mach 2 (or more than 2,000 kph) and its arsenal of smart bombs, missiles and cannons, the F-22 Raptor can strike with sledgehammer force and pinpoint accuracy.

This week these $160 million computerised assassins have been streaking across the skies above the Korean Peninsula. The Raptor is the star of operation Invincible Shield, the show of force designed to get the tyrant of Pyongyang trembling in his safari suit. A symbol of US military superiority this stealth fighter may be, but to Kim Jong-il it's an emblem of American impotence. While Washington and Seoul play war games, the North Korean despot has a proven record of firing off ballistic missiles and detonating nuclear devices, sending shockwaves down the peninsula and all the way to the White House. In this game of gunboat poker, it's often hard to know when Pyongyang is bluffing or when it's about to slam down a big hand. But in recent days, it's become clear that the Americans and South Koreans are running out of cards.

After marching along the thin ribbon of razor wire and land mines separating the two Koreas, Hillary Clinton played her ace.

"These measures are not directed at the people of North Korea, who have suffered too long due to the misguided and malign priorities of their government," Mrs Clinton told reporters fresh from her inspection of the demilitarised zone (DMZ) last week. "They are directed at destabilising illicit and provocative policies pursued by that government."

What the US secretary of state was announcing was a tightening of existing sanctions against Pyongyang - Washington's toughest response so far to the sinking in March of the South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in the Yellow Sea in which 46 sailors died. Specifically, the United States would target North Korea's global criminal network - operations like money laundering, phoney pharmaceuticals (including fake Viagra), weapons trading, counterfeit cash (both Japanese Yen and US dollars) and contraband cigarettes. Washington would go after international banks holding Pyongyang's cash, it would also intercept luxury goods used to reward the regime's elites, and it would enforce travel bans against North Korean officials. So no more BMWs or trips to Zurich for Kim's favourite henchmen.

"If I were Pyongyang I would not be trembling in my boots about this," Nick Eberstadt, a North Korea specialist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, told the Christian Science Monitor.

That's because all these measures were supposed to be in place already. Pyongyang's nefarious activities have been targeted by sanctions before, but many say Washington's approach to policing them has been piecemeal at best.

The other American response to the sinking of the South Korean warship has been to unleash the Raptors, not to mention thousands of troops, three destroyers, and a 333-metre long nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Also involving the South Korean military, Operation Invincible Shield was meant to take place near the spot where the Cheonan sank in the Yellow Sea. But after the usual bellowing from Pyongyang, and complaints from Beijing, the government in Seoul agreed to move the four-day exercise to the other side of the peninsula to the Sea of Japan, or as Koreans prefer to call it, the East Sea. So Invincible Shield quickly became operation Shifting Shield, as fears grew that North Korea's threat to use its nuclear deterrent in response may not be a bluff.

So, north of the DMZ, what would the dear leader be thinking? Well, this lover of Ginseng whisky and French cognac may be a little concerned that his illicit business ventures around the globe could be in Washington's sights again. Kim Jong-il's various under-the-table operations are directed by so-called offices '38' and '39' of the Korean Workers Party, earning the regime tens of millions of dollars a year. That's a lot of counterfeit cash, fake cigarettes and phoney Viagra. Then there are the legitimate funds from trading houses selling everything from North Korean mushrooms to sea urchins. The "supreme brain", as Kim is called, also rakes in tens, possibly hundreds of millions of dollars a year from the country's arms exports.

As for Washington and Seoul's war games, Pyongyang is using the gathering armada to consolidate the North Korean population behind the regime, warning that Invincible Shield is a rehearsal for a full-scale invasion by the US imperialists and their South Korean puppets. With the Americans extricating themselves from Iraq and bogged down in Afghanistan, Kim Jong-il knows the Obama administration doesn't have the stomach or the strength for another fight. And what a fight it would be. "A symphony of death" is how Kurt Campbell, now president Obama's assistant secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs, once described the likely outcome. The South, with its US ally, would probably prevail. But with more than a million soldiers, and thousands of rockets pointing at Seoul, the North could offer up a hail of death. As North Korea specialist Leon Sigal once remarked: "You don't want to get into a pissing match when the other guy has a full bladder."

So is North Korea bluffing, or is it busting for a fight? That could depend on Washington's sanctions and its stealth fighters, and just how hard it's prepared to squeeze.

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