If public polls are to be believed, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucuses.
However, such public polls can be entirely misleading. No matter what such polls claim, Bernie Sanders, Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz should not worry about it. The final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll for Republicans and Democrats in Iowa may be incorrect. Here is why.
It’s a Complicated Process
Caucuses, unlike primary elections, tend to be a bit complicated. Voters are supposed to cast ballots during a scheduled time in the evening. Caucuses are more time-consuming, which may discourage a lot of people from voting.
Iowa Voters Can Change Their Mind
There is every possibility for caucus voters to change their mind at the last moment. Supporters are allowed to give speeches at the caucuses and convince voters. This is not possible in primary elections which do not allow such things in polling premises.
“All a poll can do is estimate what people intend to do,” Politico quoted pollster J. Ann Selzer as saying. “But it’s a process designed for people to change their minds in the room.”
Lack of Attendance
At the 2012 GOP caucus, only six percent of the total number of registered voters attended. Such huge lack of attendance makes a lot of difference.
People tell lies to pollsters at times, or, at least, they overestimate their plans to cast ballots. Polls often include opinions of those who do not actually show up at the caucus.
Democratic Counting vs. Republic Counting
While Republicans count the number of votes for each candidate, Democrats release the number of delegates won by every candidate. The calculations can be complicated and differ from poll results.
Clinton, meanwhile, seems confident about her chances at the caucuses. “We are on the right path, my friends,” the Huffington Post quoted her as saying in her final pitch. “We just have to stay on it.”
Clinton did not get enough support from Democrat voters in 2008, which saw the rise of Barack Obama. This is the time she has a socialist to compete with.